Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, is celebrating its success in forecasting President-elect Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, but not without facing regulatory pushback. French authorities have launched an investigation into Polymarket’s activities, citing concerns over compliance with French gambling laws and signaling a potential ban on the platform in France.
Polymarket’s prediction markets use real-time bets to determine likely outcomes, a model that supporters argue is more accurate than traditional polls. By election night, Polymarket’s odds showed Trump as the likely winner well before media outlets made the call. CEO Shane Coplan noted that the platform’s odds reflect genuine expectations, explaining that prediction markets allow people to place bets based on what they believe will happen rather than personal biases.
The French regulator had been eyeing Polymarket — the crypto betting platform which showed Trump being favored to win the presidency — since before its recent surge in popularityhttps://t.co/Vw0R8pzJ14
— Victor Goury-Laffont (@Victorglaf) November 7, 2024
The French National Gaming Authority has expressed concerns about Polymarket’s operations in France, where it lacks authorization. According to reports, the authority had been monitoring Polymarket before the election and is now actively investigating its legality. With talks of a ban, French regulators aim to limit access to platforms that offer betting services without official permission.
REPORT: The French Polymarket trader is set to rake in $48 million in profits and outsmarted nearly every mainstream media pollster in the process.
So how exactly did he outsmart the media pollsters?
According to the Polymarket trader who spoke with the Wall Street Journal, he… pic.twitter.com/kqZyEF78ZG
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 7, 2024
Polymarket’s recent performance has renewed interest in prediction markets as a potential replacement for traditional polling. Some experts argue that these markets provide a clearer snapshot of public sentiment, as they depend on participants’ willingness to place financially motivated bets. Thomas Peterffy, a prominent investor, has highlighted the platform’s capacity to remove emotion from the forecasting process.
🇫🇷 JUST IN: Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, faces a ban in France after a French trader won $19 million on a bet, prompting regulators to deem it illegal gambling. pic.twitter.com/LHnaEC1PLb
— ChainChampion (@Chain_champ1) November 7, 2024
Among Polymarket’s top winners was a French trader who reportedly won $85 million betting on Trump. The substantial gain has drawn attention to the influence of high-stakes betting in political prediction markets, raising questions about the role of large-scale wagers on platform dynamics.
As Polymarket continues to gain popularity, regulatory actions in Europe may shape its future. The platform’s success in forecasting major political events has established it as a competitive alternative to polling, yet challenges from regulators may limit its reach, especially in countries with strict gambling rules.
