Democrats feeling optimistic about Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances in the 2024 election should take a step back and consider President Donald Trump’s history of outperforming polling averages, according to strategist James Carville. Speaking on CNN’s “The Lead with Jake Tapper,” Carville stressed that Democrats need to temper their expectations and prepare for a tough race, even if current polls seem favorable.
Carville pointed out that Trump has consistently outpaced his polling numbers in past elections, making him a more formidable opponent than some Democrats might think. In 2016, Trump defied most polls to defeat Hillary Clinton, and in 2020, he performed better than expected in many swing states, keeping the race much closer than anticipated.
One key factor Carville highlighted is the Electoral College. Harris would likely need to win the popular vote by a significant margin to secure an Electoral College victory, given Trump’s strength in critical battleground states. Carville warned that “getting giddy” over early polling could be a mistake, as the real challenge lies in translating those numbers into an Electoral College win.
Carville’s comments come as other Democrats, like CNN’s Van Jones, express concern that Harris hasn’t widened her lead despite a favorable news cycle. With the race expected to tighten as November approaches, Carville’s caution serves as a reminder that Democrats can’t afford to take Trump’s support for granted. The road to victory will require strategic focus and a clear-eyed view of the hurdles ahead.
